The evidence supports growing general AI use, but not a verified HVAC agency-spending growth rate. It also shows that equipment sales, installations, software users and enquiry volumes must be kept separate.
| Indicator | Dated observation | What it does—and does not—show |
|---|---|---|
| UK business AI adoption | 30% used at least one AI technology in September 2026, compared with 9% in September 2023; ONS publication 8 October 2026. (ons.gov.uk) | Wider familiarity with AI. Not HVAC penetration, agency purchasing or customer-facing deployment. |
| Administrative impact | Among businesses with 10+ employees using AI, 38% reported administrative and clerical roles as the most affected in September 2026; published 8 October 2026. (ons.gov.uk) | Supports investigating administrative workflows. Does not establish cash savings or justify removing a role. |
| UK heat-pump factory-gate sales | 125,037 units in 2025, including 110,353 hydronic units; total sales 27% above 2024. HPA UK publication 26 March 2026. (hpauk.org.uk) | Manufacturer sales, not completed domestic retrofit jobs or qualified enquiries. |
| Domestic retrofit heat-pump installations | 20,895 in January–June 2026, versus 26,768 in the same period of 2025: 22% lower. DESNZ publication 10 September 2026. (gov.uk) | A more cautious recent installation signal. This provisional series is narrower than factory-gate sales. |
ONS labels the business survey results official statistics in development, warranting caution in their use. DESNZ also identifies its deployment statistics as provisional and subject to revision. (ons.gov.uk)
What does this mean for heat-pump enquiry qualification?
Do not buy an automation project on the assumption that national installation growth will fill your diary. The contrasting sales and installation series support testing the buyer’s own funnel rather than extrapolating from a single industry headline. This is the desk’s inference from those differently scoped datasets. (hpauk.org.uk)
For a contractor, the useful volume sequence is:
Unique enquiry → serviceable property/customer → qualified survey → accepted quotation → completed installation → contribution collected.
An automated qualification system should be evaluated against that sequence. More completed forms are not automatically more profitable work.
Sources cited on this page
- ons.gov.uk ↗www.ons.gov.uk
- hpauk.org.uk ↗hpauk.org.uk
- gov.uk ↗www.gov.uk